http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-O40/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code O40 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38710/ 2012-12-01T00:00:00Z Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function. Most discussions in the literature address these problems independently, yet a joint treatment is essential. We present a new framework that makes such a joint treatment possible, using flexible nonlinear models specified by Gaussian process priors and addressing the variable selection problem by means of Bayesian model averaging. Using this framework, we extend the linear model to allow for parameter heterogeneity of the type suggested by new growth theory, while taking into account the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables. Controlling for variable selection uncertainty, we confirm the evidence in favor of parameter heterogeneity presented in several earlier studies. However, controlling for functional form uncertainty, we find that the effects of many of the explanatory variables identified in the literature are not robust across countries and variable selections. Salimans, T. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22337/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function. Most discussions in the literature address these problems independently, yet a joint treatment is essential. We perform this joint treatment by extending the linear model to allow for multiple-regime parameter heterogeneity of the type suggested by new growth theory, while addressing the variable selection problem by means of Bayesian model averaging. Controlling for variable selection uncertainty, we confirm the evidence in favor of new growth theory presented in several earlier studies. However, controlling for functional form uncertainty, we find that the effects of many of the explanatory variables identified in the literature are not robust across countries and variable selections. Salimans, T. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31151/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract: We analyze rural household livelihood and children’s educational investment decisions in a post-conflict setting located in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region of Bangladesh. The study represents a contribution to the microeconomic analysis of conflict. Another innovation of the paper lies in the fact that we employ information about subjective perceptions of violent experiences, which is in turn used to explain household economic decision making. Heightened subjective perceptions of violence lower consumption expenditure, but it can raise land use intensity, and more risky mixed crop cultivation. In some case experiences of displacement and other violence raises the likelihood of households sending children to school. This indicates that a specific postconflict ‘phoenix’ factor may be in operation, even without substantial infrastructure reconstruction. Also, the trauma emanating from actual past experiences combined with current high perceptions of risk of violence after an imperfect accord ending a lowintensity conflict may make people bolder and more risk taking in order to enhance their long-term future. We, therefore, also make a contribution to the literature on a non-linear relationship between violence and the temporal patterning of livelihood decision-making. Murshed, S.M. Badiuzzaman, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19363/ 2010-04-29T00:00:00Z The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting and topical empirical issue. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in 159 countries over the period 1989-2008. The results from panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between economic growth and tourism. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to quantify the contributions of tourism specialization to economic growth, while correcting for endogeneity between the regressors and error term. The significant impact of tourism specialization on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different specifications of tourism specialization, as well as to differences in real GDP measurement. However, the coefficients of the tourism specialization variables in the two regimes are significantly different, with a higher impact of tourism on economic growth found in the low regime. These findings do not change with changes in the threshold variables. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to substantial economic growth. Chang, C.L. Khamkaew, T. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17310/ 2009-11-24T00:00:00Z The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth. Chang, C.L. Khamkaew, T. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15600/ 2009-05-01T00:00:00Z Total factor productivity of twenty OECD countries for a recent period (1971-2002) is explained using six different models based on the established literature. Traditionally, entrepreneurship is not dealt with in these models. In the present paper it is shown that – when this variable is added - in all models there is a significant influence of entrepreneurship while the remaining effects mainly stay the same. Entrepreneurship is measured as the business ownership rate (number of business owners per workforce) corrected for the level of economic development (GDP per capita). Erken, H.P.G. Donselaar, P. Thurik, A.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13564/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper investigates the impact of changes in the number of business owners on three measures of economic performance, viz. employment growth, GDP growth and labor productivity growth. Particular attention is devoted to the lag structure. The analysis is performed at the country level for 21 OECD countries. Our results confirm earlier evidence on three stages in the impact of entry on economic performance: an initial direct positive effect, followed by a negative effect due to exiting capacities and finally a stage of positive supply-side effects. The net effect is positive for employment and GDP growth. Changes in the number of business owners have no effect on labor productivity. Carree, M.A. Thurik, A.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32342/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z ABSTRACT: I review the relationship between natural resource endowment type and economic growth in developing countries. Certain types of natural resources such as oil and minerals tend to exhibit concentrated production and revenue patterns, while revenue flows from other resources such as agriculture are more diffused. Most developing countries that export products from the first group are prone to growth failure in recent times. The most important channels are political economy mechanisms, where there are negative relationships between natural resource rents and institutional development. An explicit model of growth collapse with micro-foundations in rent-seeking contests that have increasing returns in rent seeking outlays is presented. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9869/ 2005-12-01T00:00:00Z Entrepreneurial activity is generally assumed to be an important aspect of the organization of industries most conducive to innovative activity and unrestrained competition. This paper investigates whether total entrepreneurial activity influences GDP growth for a sample of 36 countries. We test whether this influence depends on the level of economic development measured as GDP per capita. Adjustment is made for a range of alternative explanations for achieving economic growth by incorporating the Growth Competitiveness Index. We find that entrepreneurial activity by nascent entrepreneurs and owner/managers of young businesses affects economic growth, but that this effect depends upon the level of per capita income. This suggests that entrepreneurship plays a different role in countries in different stages of economic development. Thurik, A.R. Stel, A.J. van Carree, M.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15799/ 2005-04-01T00:00:00Z Entrepreneurial activity is generally assumed to be an important aspect of the organization of industries most conducive to innovative activity and unrestrained competition. This paper investigates whether total entrepreneurial activity (TEA) influences GDP growth for a sample of 36 countries. We test whether this influence depends on the level of economic development measured as GDP per capita. Adjustment is made for a range of alternative explanations for achieving economic growth by incorporating the Growth Competitiveness Index (GCI). We find that entrepreneurial activity by nascent entrepreneurs and owner/managers of young businesses affects economic growth, but that this effect depends upon the level of per capita income. This suggests that entrepreneurship plays a different role in countries in different stages of economic development. Stel, A.J. van Carree, M.A. Thurik, A.R.