http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-Q52/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code Q52 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38228/ 2013-01-08T00:00:00Z This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated. Chu, L.F. McAleer, M.J. Chen, C.-C. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13098/ 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z Recentiy, the importance of environmental and economic "win-win" situations has been stressed, indicating that care of the environment requires economic growth, while economic growth in turn cannot take place without taking proper care of the environment. We generalize a popular endogenous growth model with constant returns to scale in a broad measure of the capital stock, by making consumers care not only about current and future consumption levels, but also about the current and future quali'y of the environment, to see under what circumstances "win-win" situations can arise. The capital stock is decomposed into private capital and productive government spending. Production of goods and services causes pollution which is detrimental to the environment. The government can invest in abatement processes to clean up the environment and in productive government spending by taxing production (= income). There is, therefore, both an environmental externality and a public good, i.e. productive government spending. This brings us within the realms of second-best economics. We investigate the decentralized market economy as well as the command economy. Two approaches to model the environment can be distinguished in the literature: the stock approach and the flow approach. The flow approach assumes that the level of environmental quality changes instantaneously if the production level changes or if the level of abatement changes and is particularly relevant for analysing the environmental externality associated with noise. The stock approach, on the other hand, assumes that pollution and abatement indirectly influence the environment by affecting the rate of change of the environment over time and is more relevant for analyzing the problems of acid rain. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van Ploeg, F. van der Verbeek, J.B.L.M.