http://repub.eur.nl/res/org/7056/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20714/ 2010-09-16T00:00:00Z This PhD thesis presents the outcome of exploratory research on how transition experiments can be used as instruments to further sustainable development. A transition experiment is a specific type of innovation project that is aimed at exploring radically new ways to meet societal needs, such as the need for energy, mobility and health care. Transition experiments are a key instrument of the governance approach Transition Management (TM), which has recently been developed and applied to influence and direct transitions towards sustainability. This book presents a conceptual framework for analysing and managing transition experiments and their potential contribution to sustainability transitions. Central concepts in this framework are the mechanisms deepening (learning in a specific context), broadening (linking and repeating in different contexts) and scaling-up (embedding in established ways of thinking, doing and organising). The framework was developed in interaction with practitioners in three Dutch sustainability programmes: Learning for Sustainable Development, Transumo (TRANsition to SUstainable MObility) and the Transition Programme in Long-term Care. The practice-oriented concepts and examples that are described in this book could provide researchers, policy makers, programme managers and project leaders with a new way of looking at the role of innovation projects in transitions to sustainable development. Bosch, S.J.M. van den http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20593/ 2010-09-10T00:00:00Z This thesis is a treatise on a theory for societal transitions: pillar theory. Societal transitions are complex processes taking place in complex systems, large-scale, long-term processes in which societal systems radically change the way they are composed and function. Since we all are part of societal systems, it speaks for itself that we ought to want to understand transitions. Nevertheless, although several aspects of transitions have been studied from various perspectives in various disciplines, the study of societal transitions as such is a relatively recent development. Consequently, the knowledge on transitions is scattered over disciplines and rather fragmented. Understanding requires theory, for even articulating what one doesn't know about a certain subject inevitably requires phrasing it as a question using concepts. Theory is an intellectual tool. It also works the other way around. Theory is also the result of understanding and it is this Janus-faced property on which this thesis is based. Haan, J. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18365/ 2010-04-01T00:00:00Z In this article we present four different cases of transition management in which we were involved over the past 10 years. Transition management was developed in the course of this period in theoretical and practical sense, mainly in the Netherlands, as novel mode of governance for sustainable development. The theoretical debate about transition management is being increasingly published, but so far only few empirical examples were. In this article we present four cases that combined give a representative illustration of both the advantages and the difficulties of actually trying to manage transitions. The article ends by drawing lessons and formulating research questions for the future. Loorbach, D.A. Rotmans, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17462/ 2009-12-09T00:00:00Z This book reports on the explorative search of a new scenario method for the development of transition scenarios. This type of scenario has already been practiced on an experimental basis, but as yet there was no solid conceptual and methodological basis. Nevertheless, this type of scenario development is becoming increasingly important in light of reaching future sustainability. The rationale behind transition scenarios is that we are facing persistent societal problems of high complexity and uncertainty. For anticipating these developments and influencing future sustainability, we have to be aware of the need for a more radical type of change process that differs significantly from the trend-based ones envisioned in the more conventional scenario approaches. This is because sustainability suggests that prospects for disruption, discontinuities, surprises and shocks are increasingly in evidence. Subsequently, the claim is made that new and better scenario approaches need to be developed that can merge in with this new perspective on foresight. Against the background of these developments, this book introduces a new scenario method (TRANSCE) for visualizing transformative change patterns towards sustainability. TRANSCE builds on existing scenario methods but adds new elements. Through this integration it provides a new concept for scientific research and a method for scenario practice in the context of sustainability. By taking discontinuities as a starting point, TRANSCE offers a generic method to create and visualize desirable and inspiring images of sustainable future systems accompanied by guiding pathways of structural change. With this method we aspire to combine the best of several worlds and to develop scenarios that possess and balance multiple features: long-term and short-term, realistic and desirable, process and content and explorative and normative. Contrary to the conventional scenarios, the design objective of TRANSCE does not lie in being plausible or realistic. Instead, it lies in trying to inform! and inspire sustainability-oriented short-term action by generating a sense of urgency and fuelling a mindset change. This book offers insight into five years of development of theory and practice of transition scenarios as a new type of scenario method in sustainability-oriented foresight activities. It is highly relevant for science and policy related to transformative change and sustainable development. Sondeijker, S.A.G.C http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16985/ 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks. Frantzeskaki, N. Haan, J. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18245/ 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z This article describes policy–science interactions in a transition process in which we were involved as scientists. We describe the interactions that occurred in a project for the fourth National Environmental Policy Plan in the Netherlands. The project was successful in that it produced a new concept and set of principles for policy to deal with persistent problems such as global climate change, which were used in the national policy plan. The new concept was that of transition and the principles were: policy integration, long-term thinking for short-term action, keeping multiple options open and learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning. Retrospectively, we ask ourselves: what factors facilitated the acceptance of the first ideas about transition management? Reconstructing the events and drawing on interviews with key individuals involved, we have tried to find the key factors for the adoption of the ideas developed in the project. Finally, we reflect upon our role as scientists-advisors and the role of others in the development of a new story line and set of principles for policy. Our own assessment, 8 years later, is that we were engaged in boundary work. Rotmans, J. Kemp, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18412/ 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z This article conceptualizes power in the context of long-term process of structural change. First, it discusses the field of transition studies, which deals with processes of structural change in societal systems on the basis of certain presumptions about power relations, but still lacks an explicit conceptualization of power. Then the article discusses some prevailing points of contestation in debates on power. It is argued that for the context of transition studies, it is necessary to develop an interdisciplinary framework in which power is explicitly conceptualized in relation to change. Subsequently, such a framework is presented, with reference to existing literature on power. Starting with a philosophical and operational definition of power, a typology is developed of the different ways in which power can be exercised, explicitly including innovative power and transformative power. Finally, the presented power framework is applied to transition studies, redefining pivotal transition concepts in terms of power and formulating hypotheses on the role of power in transitions. By doing so, the article not only offers an interdisciplinary framework to study power in the context of transition studies, but also contributes to power debates more generally by including innovation and transformation as acts of power, and thereby proposes a re-conceptualization of the relation between power and structural change. Avelino, F. Rotmans, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16186/ 2009-07-03T00:00:00Z The main objective of this dissertation is to generate more insight into the dynamics of sustainability transitions, more specifically it deals with the question of which kind of social structures are changing during a transition and how these transformative changes come about. Using insights from resilience theory and social theories, this research indicates that in order to understand and explain transitions we should shift our attention towards the regime concept. The regime is often treated as a black box, not explicitly clarifying which elements constitute the regime nor addressing the internal dynamics. The regime conceptualization suggested in this dissertation is a first step into this direction. A new transition analysis approach is developed which enables researchers to analyze which regime structures are changing during a transition and how these changes come about (i.e. the underlying transformation patterns). The research presents an in-depth analysis of the dynamics of the transition of Dutch water management, starting around the 1970s and is still unfolding towards a new regime adapting to and anticipating climate change. Our analysis suggests that niches and the regimes may be more cooperative than suggested in the literature and that even the regime is actively involved in creating niches. The regime creates niches through the formation of new structures. The niche initiates transformation leading to new regime structures, which in turn trigger niches. Scientifically, this dissertation triggers intriguing questions as to when societal change may be classified as transition. Practically, it provides leverages for systems analysis and transition management. Brugge, R. van der http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17532/ 2009-04-01T00:00:00Z This article presents a framework, transition management, for managing complex societal systems. The principal contribution of this article is to articulate the relationship between transition management and complex systems theory. A better understanding of the dynamics of complex, adaptive systems provides insight into the opportunities, limitations, and conditions under which it is possible to influence such systems. Transition management is based on key notions of complex systems theory, such as variation and selection, emergence, coevolution, and self-organization. It involves a cyclical process of phases at various scale levels: stimulating niche development at the micro level, finding new attractors at the macro level by developing a sustainability vision, creating diversity by setting out experiments, and selecting successful experiments that can be scaled up. Rotmans, J. Loorbach, D.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17531/ 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper develops a strategic perspective for business to contribute to the innovation of societal systems. Sustainability issues at the level of societal sectors cannot be addressed by single organizations but need to be thought of as systemic challenges in which business, government and civil society each play different roles. Sustainability involves structural changes over longer periods of time, and requires co-evolutionary changes in technology, economy, culture and organizational forms. We propose that the transition management framework offers a fruitful way to analyze such co-evolutionary processes of social transformation and subsequently develop strategies to infl uence and accelerate such processes. We present the case of two firms working in this new context of transition management in The Netherlands. From these cases we conceptualize a more general approach for business to redefine and reframe the societal context in which it is operating and develop novel business strategies. Loorbach, D.A. Bakel, J.C. van Whiteman, G.M. Rotmans, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18256/ 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z This article creates a meeting ground between two distinct and fairly elaborate research traditions dealing with social “transitions”: the Dutch societal transitions management approach, and the Viennese sociometabolic transitions approach. Sharing a similar understanding of sustainability transitions—namely as major transformational changes of system characteristics—and a background epistemology of complex systems, autopoeisis, and evolutionary mechanisms, they address the subject from different angles: one approach asks how transformative changes happen and what they look like, and the other approach tries answer the question of how to bring them about. The Viennese approach is almost exclusively analytical and deals with a macro (“landscape”) level of human history with a time scale of decades to centuries; the Dutch approach is based on intervention experiences and deals with a shorter time frame (decades) of micro–meso–macro levels of industrial societies. From both their respective angles, they contribute to some of the key questions of sustainability research, namely: how can a transformative change toward sustainability be distinguished from other types of social change? By which mechanisms can obstacles, path dependencies, and adverse interests be overcome? And what are the key persistent problems that call for such a transition? Rotmans, J. Fischer-Kowalski, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18366/ 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper reports on the research outcomes and practical experiences with transitions and transition management in the Netherlands. Transitions are phenomena that receive increasing interest from researchers, policy-makers and the business community as an integrated paradigm for dealing with persistent unsustainability problems as well as with structuring activities aiming at radical breakthroughs towards sustainability. Within the Netherlands, the Dutch research network on System Innovations and Transitions (KSI) and the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (DRIFT) have functioned as the core centres for research and practices in this area. Loorbach, D.A. Rotmans, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14555/ 2008-09-24T00:00:00Z Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an "equilibriumist" approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called "transformation processes". These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature. Schilperoord, M.P. Rotmans, J. Bergman, N. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14556/ 2008-09-22T00:00:00Z After an introduction of the theoretical framework and concepts of transition studies, this article gives an overview of how structural change in social systems has been studied from various disciplinary perspectives. This overview first leads to the conclusion that computational and mathematical approaches and their practical form, modeling, up till now, have been almost absent in the research and theorizing of structural change or transitions in social systems. Second, this review of the social science literature suggests numerous theoretical constructs relevant for transition modeling. Relevant concepts include the conceptualization of the micro-to-macro link, the importance of explaining both stability and change, quantitative and qualitative definitions of structural change, the use of dichotomies, synchronic and diachronic reasoning in explaining structural change, definitions of basic patterns of social change, the conceptualization of resistance to change and intentional and normative aspects of social change. This article employs these theoretical concepts to describe and discuss the models presented in this special issue in order to develop an understanding of what exactly entails a computational or mathematical approach to societal transitions. Timmermans, J. Squazzoni, F. Haan, J. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14557/ 2008-09-22T00:00:00Z In this article a mathematical framework is introduced and explored for the study of processes in societal transitions. A transition is conceptualised as a fundamental shift in the functioning of a societal system. The framework views functioning as a real-valued field defined upon a real variable. The initial status quo prior to a transition is captured in a field called the regime and the alternative that possibly takes over is represented in a field called a niche. Think for example of a transition in an energy supply system, where the regime could be centrally produced, fossil fuel based energy supply and a niche decentralised renewable energy production. The article then proceeds to translate theoretical notions on the interactions and dynamics of regimes and niches from transition literature into the language of this framework. This is subsequently elaborated in some simple models and studied analytically or by means of computer simulation. Haan, J. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14558/ 2008-09-15T00:00:00Z Timmermans, J.S. Haan, J. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14559/ 2008-09-15T00:00:00Z Coleman's equilibrium model of social development, the Linear System of Action, is extended to cover the dynamics of societal transitions. The model implemented has the characteristics of a dissipative system. A variation and selection algorithm favoring the retention of relatively dependent actors forces the system away from equilibrium, while exchange of control, according to Coleman the driving force behind social action, accounts for dissipation, pulling the social system back to equilibrium. This Non-linear System of Action self-organizes into a critical state, as confirmed by the robust power law distribution of exchange of control for a wide range of model sizes. Related punctuated equilibrium dynamics and structural change are of special interest, as these are closely connected to hypotheses on social dynamics developed in the literature on societal transitions. Timmermans, J.S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18446/ 2008-04-01T00:00:00Z The essentials of transition management Transition management is a model of coevolutionary management of transformative change in societal systems through a process of searching, learning, and experimenting. Managing here means adjusting, adapting, and influencing rather than the command-and-control mode (Loorbach, 2007; Rotmans et al, 2001a; 2001b). The rationale behind transition management is that there are persistent problems for which there are no immediate solutions. By transforming the persistent problem into a visionary challenge, transition management explores a range of possible options and pathways, by carrying out a diversity of small-scale experiments. Based on what is learned form the transition experiments, the vision, agenda, and pathways are adjusted, if needed. Successful experiments are continued and can be scaled up; failed experiments are abandoned. Another round starts until some kind of convergence is reached. Transition management is thus a cyclical process of envisioning, agenda building, instrumenting, experimenting, and learning. Rather than focusing on a single, available solution, transition management explores various options and is aimed at guiding variation-selection processes into more sustainable directions, with the long-term aim of selecting the most sustainable option(s) and paths based on learning experiences. Rotmans, J. Kemp, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15812/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z This essay presents a conceptual framework for analyzing and influencing the contribution of small-scale experiments to transitions towards a more sustainable society. This framework is aimed at providing academics and practitioners with a theoretical and practice oriented perspective to both understand and ‘steer’ the contribution of experiments to transitions. The central instrument in this framework are ‘transition experiments’, which provide an alternative approach to classical innovation projects that are aimed at realizing short-term solutions. A transition experiment is an innovation project with a societal challenge as a starting point for learning aimed at contributing to a transition. Bosch, S.J.M. van den Rotmans, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18447/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z Introduction: The topic of this special issue is Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) and its potential role in achieving sustainability-oriented governance and more sustainable development. This is a topic that has featured before in the International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development. Two of the Guest Editors for this special issue, Paul M. Weaver and Jan Rotmans, wrote a paper introducing ISA and its development in the context of the EC-funded Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (MATISSE) project, which was published in the journal in 2006. The Weaver–Rotmans paper was written at the outset of the MATISSE project when ISA was at an early stage of conceptual development and its potential was still to be developed and tested. The tool and model development activities of the MATISSE project and its illustrative case studies were then only just at their start. It is now timely and appropriate, therefore, as the MATISSE project nears its completion, that we follow up on that earlier paper, reporting what progress has been made and making available the latest project developments and emerging findings about ISA. This special issue provides a far broader and much deeper treatment of issues that the earlier paper could only touch on briefly. Rotmans, J. Jäger, J Weaver, P.