http://repub.eur.nl/res/org/9724/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31091/ 2012-08-01T00:00:00Z In this article, we correlate the key features of the distribution of wealth of the 500 wealthiest individuals in the Netherlands with economic growth and stock market returns for the period 1998 to 2009. We show that each year the distribution obeys a power law and that the key parameter measures the degree of inequality. Our main finding is that more inequality amongst the wealthiest is associated with higher economic growth. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Vermeer, S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32155/ 2012-03-16T00:00:00Z The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data from the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis to analyze to what degree violations of the strict validity assumption affect the estimation results. We show that, in case of moderate direct effects of the instrument on the dependent variable, the results do not deviate much from the benchmark case of no such effect (perfect validity of the instrument's exclusion restriction). In many cases, the size of the bias is smaller than the width of the 95% posterior interval for the effect of education on income. Thus, a violation of the strict validity assumption does not necessarily lead to results which are strongly different from those of the strict validity case. This finding provides confidence in the use of family background variables as instruments in income regressions. The paper analyzes to what degree violations of the perfect validity of the exclusion restriction for family background variables in income regression affect the estimation results. ► In case of moderate direct effects of the instrument on the dependent variable, the results do not deviate much from the benchmark case of no such effect (perfect validity of the instrument's exclusion restriction). ► The finding provides confidence in the use of family background variables as instruments in income regressions. Hoogerheide, L.F. Block, J.H. Thurik, A.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31825/ 2012-03-01T00:00:00Z We study localization, urbanization and Jacobs' externality effects on plant survival in Sweden (1970-2004). We focus on two questions: (i) do agglomeration externalities change with the age of plants? and (ii) what is the role of technological relatedness among local industries? We find that agglomeration externalities affect survival chances of plants. This effect, however, differs between corporate and non-affiliated plants. Furthermore, we find that Jacobs' externalities benefit only young plants, whereas urbanization externalities harm plants at all ages. Localization externalities are insignificant, while the local presence of technologically related industries substantially increases survival rates of plants. Neffke, F. Henning, M. Boschma, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23839/ 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z The Flemish Ministry of Education promotes the integrated education of disabled children by providing educational opportunities in common schools. In the current system, disabled children receive ambulant help from a teaching assistant (TA) employed at an institute for extra-ordinary education. The compensation that the TAs receive for driving to visit the pupils is a major cost factor for the institute that provides the assistance. Therefore, the institute's management desires a schedule that minimizes the accumulated distance traveled by all TAs combined. We call this optimization problem the teaching assistants assignment-routing problem (TAARP). It involves three decisions that have to be taken simultaneously: (1) pupils have to be assigned to TAs; (2) pupils assigned to a given TA have to be spread over the TA's different working days; and (3) the order in which to visit the pupils on each day has to be determined. We propose a solution strategy based on an auction algorithm and a variable neighborhood search heuristic which has an excellent performance when applied to both simulated and real instances. The total distance traveled in the solution obtained for the institute's data set improves the current solution by about 22% which represents a saving of approximately 9% on the annual budget of the institute for integrated education. Maya, P.A. Sörensen, K. Goos, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32134/ 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z Objectives: The aim of the present study was to investigate the pattern of emergence of permanent teeth using nonparametric techniques. Materials and methods: Data were obtained from the Signal-Tandmobiel®project, a 6-year prospective dental study conducted in Flanders (Belgium) in which 4468 primary school children born in 1989 were annually examined. A new exploratory method for interval-censored data, the IC-biplot, was applied to estimate individual sequences of emergence. In addition, the method renders a nice graphical representation of both children and teeth in the plane where the individual sequences of emergence can easily be visualized. On the basis of the estimated individual sequences, their corresponding prevalences were calculated. Results: The study revealed that between 7 and 13 different sequences of emergence can be expected depending on gender and quadrant. The prevalences of the most frequent sequences in girls varied from 35% to 85% depending on the quadrant, while in boys they varied from 28% to 32%. Most sequences in the maxilla start with 6-1-2 and in the mandible with 1-6-2. Conclusions: The IC-biplot is a flexible procedure that allows an easy visualization of the pattern of emergence of permanent teeth. Rank orders derived from the IC-biplot confirm rank orders suggested earlier in the literature. Cecere, S. Leroy, R. Groenen, P.J.F. Lesaffre, E. Declerck, D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26644/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z The A-Not A difference test can be used to measure the overall sensory difference of two or more products from a reference product. It is an economically efficient method for difference testing because it is more statistically powerful and less prone to working memory problems than the triangle or duo-trio tests. With the A-Not A test, subjects are required to be familiar with the reference product to stabilize their cognitive decision criteria. An effective familiarization procedure is needed. In the present study, the effects of four different familiarization procedures were investigated: (1) 2-AFCR, (2) no-additional familiarization, (3) repeated tastings of the reference, and (4) repeated tastings of the reference with a brand image provided. Two products were discriminated from a reference using 12 subjects over repeated sessions. Comparisons of the test performances, analyzed with d' estimates, showed that there was a tendency toward better discrimination when repeated tastings of the reference were accompanied by a brand image. Kim, M.A. Chae, J.E. Hout, D. van Lee, H.S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26749/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z This article addresses heterogeneity in determinants of economic growth in a data-driven way. Instead of defining groups of countries with different growth characteristics a priori, based on, for example, geographical location, we use a finite mixture panel model and endogenous clustering to examine cross-country differences and similarities in the effects of growth determinants. Applying this approach to an annual unbalanced panel of 59 countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and Africa for the period 1971-2000, we can identify two groups of countries in terms of distinct growth structures. The structural differences between the country groups mainly stem from different effects of investment, openness measures and government share in the economy. Furthermore, the detected segmentation of countries does not match with conventional classifications in the literature. Basturk, N. Paap, R. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/30982/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z This study investigated split-attention and redundancy effects in a mobile learning environment on leaf morphology of plants as a function of different combinations of media. Eighty-one fifth-grade students were randomly assigned to the following three conditions: texts with pictures embedded in the mobile device (TP condition); texts embedded in the mobile device and real objects that are outside of the mobile device (TO condition); and texts with pictures embedded in the mobile device and real objects that are outside of the mobile device (TPO condition). Differences in performance on comprehension tests and learning efficiency were examined across conditions. The TP condition was expected to perform better than the TO condition due to a split-attention effect. The TP and TO conditions were expected to perform better than the TPO condition due to a redundancy effect. The results indicated no difference between the TP and the TO condition in comprehension and learning efficiency, but the TP and TO conditions performed better than the TPO condition on both measures. The implications of the results for research and design of mobile learning environments are discussed. Liu, T.C. Lin, Y.C. Tsai, M.J. Paas, F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31092/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Several methods have recently been proposed in the ultra-high frequency financial literature to remove the effects of microstructure noise and to obtain consistent estimates of the integrated volatility (IV) as a measure of ex post daily volatility. Even bias-corrected and consistent realized volatility (RV) estimates of IV can contain residual microstructure noise and other measurement errors. Such noise is called "realized volatility error". As such errors are ignored, we need to take account of them in estimating and forecasting IV. This paper investigates through Monte Carlo simulations the effects of RV errors on estimating and forecasting IV with RV data. It is found that: (i) neglecting RV errors can lead to serious bias in estimators; (ii) the effects of RV errors on one-step-ahead forecasts are minor when consistent estimators are used and when the number of intraday observations is large; (iii) even the partially correctedR2recently proposed in the literature should be fully corrected for evaluating forecasts. This paper proposes a full correction ofR2. An empirical example for S&P 500 data is used to demonstrate the techniques developed in this paper. Asai, M. McAleer, M.J. Medeiros, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31950/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z An important paradigm in decision-making models is utility-maximization where most models do not include actors' motives. Fuzzy set theory on the other hand offers a method to simulate human decision-making. However, the literature describing expert-driven fuzzy logic models, rarely gives precise details on the methodology (to be) used. To fill the gap, this paper describes a methodology of 10 steps to model individual actor's drivers, motives, hereby taking into account the ecological, social and economic context. Testing the methodology on the composition of mixed farming systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, showed that manual model development is not a waterfall approach but requires feedback loops, except for model implementation. Using feed-back loops, the proposed 10 step method allowed to include human drivers and motives other than utility-maximization and to maintain a degree of transparency hard to achieve when using automated procedures. Bosma R. Berg, J. van den Kaymak, U. Udo H. Verreth J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32007/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper compares the introduction of policies to promote or strengthen patient choice in four Northern European countries - Denmark, England, the Netherlands and Sweden. The paper examines whether there has been convergence in choice policies across Northern Europe. Following Christopher Pollitt's suggestion, the paper distinguishes between rhetorical (discursive) convergence, decision (design) convergence and implementation (operational) convergence (Pollitt, 2002). This leads to the following research question for the article: Is the introduction of policies to strengthen choice in the four countries characterised by discursive, decision and operational convergence? The paper concludes that there seems to be convergence among these four countries in the overall policy rhetoric about the objectives associated with patient choice, embracing both concepts of empowerment (the intrinsic value) and market competition (the instrumental value). It appears that the institutional context and policy concerns such as waiting times have been important in affecting the timing of the introduction of choice policies and implementation, but less so in the design of choice policies. An analysis of the impact of choice policies is beyond the scope of this paper, but it is concluded that further research should investigate how the institutional context and timing of implementation affect differences in how the choice policy works out in practice. Copyright Vrangbaek, K. Robertson, R. Winblad, U. Bovenkamp, H.M. van de Dixon, A.L. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32010/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Hoogerheide, L.F. Ravazzolo, F. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32015/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z The Babylonian bridal auction, described by Herodotus, is regarded as one of the earliest uses of an auction in history. Yet, to our knowledge, the literature lacks a formal equilibrium analysis of this auction. We provide such an analysis for the two-player case with complete and incomplete information, and in so doing identify what we call the "Herodotus paradox". Baye, M.R. Kovenock, D. Vries, C.G. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31226/ 2011-12-15T00:00:00Z We propose a new and simple methodology to estimate the loss function associated with experts' forecasts. Under the assumption of conditional normality of the data and the forecast distribution, the asymmetry parameter of the lin-lin and linex loss function can easily be estimated using a linear regression. This regression also provides an estimate for potential systematic bias in the forecasts of the expert. The residuals of the regression are the input for a test for the validity of the normality assumption. We apply our approach to a large data set of SKU-level sales forecasts made by experts and we compare the outcomes with those for statistical model-based forecasts of the same sales data. We find substantial evidence for asymmetry in the loss functions of the experts, with underprediction penalized more than overprediction. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Legerstee, R. Paap, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/30794/ 2011-12-13T00:00:00Z This thesis discusses various novel techniques for economic forecasting. The focus is on methods that exploit the information in large data sets effectively. Each of these methods is compared to established techniques for forecasting yields on U.S. Treasury Bills, housing prices, industrial production, the employment rate, and several other economic quantities. In general, major improvements in forecast quality are obtained. Broadly speaking, two diff erent approaches can be taken when dealing with large data sets: summarizing the data before estimating a model, or restricting the model parameters suffi ciently so that all data can be used. This thesis presents advances in both directions. In particular, a new technique for summarizing large data sets in the presence of outlying observations is proposed, as well as a method for estimating fl exible nonlinear models with many predictors. The usefulness of these techniques is demonstrated, both in simulation experiments and in empirical applications. Peter Exterkate (1985) graduated from Tinbergen Institute’s M.Phil. programme in 2008, with honors. His research interests include the empirical modelling and forecasting of fi nancial time series, analysis of large data sets, nonlinear techniques, and robust methods. Part of his research is forthcoming in Journal of Forecasting. Currently, Peter works as a post-doctoral researcher at the Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES) at Aarhus University, Denmark. Exterkate, P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/30760/ 2011-12-01T00:00:00Z The Dutch Working Group on Sustainable Urban Development has recently delivered its publication Sustainable Urban Design, The Next Step (Meijer & Dubbeling, 2010). The book (to be referred to here as The Next Step) includes six examples of sustainable urban design and three major essays. The Working Group is a broad group of experts from the Dutch professional societies for urban designers and planners (BNSP) and landscape architects (NVTL). (The working group consists of urban designers, urban planers and landscape architects from the Netherlands.) It seeks to take the thinking and practice of sustainable urban design a step further: from sustainable urban design to sustainable spatial development. This paper explains this next stage which has been developed through a review of the literature, the inputs of the Working Group and the lessons learned from the case studies described in the book. Although the case study projects are sometimes more than 12. years old and are rooted in a specific Dutch societal and spatial context, they provide interesting, even up to date, insights for the planning of sustainable and durable cities. They are also compared to some projects in other European countries. This paper looks at why a renewed approach to sustainable urban design is both necessary and rewarding. It then turns to the renewed approach and putting it into practice. Based upon the case studies, new possibilities for the design of sustainable and durable cities are highlighted. Meijer, I.M.J. Adriaens, F. Linden, O. van der Schik, W. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/30911/ 2011-12-01T00:00:00Z This article uses visualization techniques to investigate global ship risk profiles and their changes over time. With a unique data set of 49,151 observations, the authors link changes in risk profiles to legislative developments and industry actions, as well as identify areas prone to general safety, loss of life, and pollution risks. Improved risk profiles over time have resulted from legislative measures, including the International Safety Management Code, the Oil Pollution Act, amendments to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, and the introduction of port state controls and industry vetting inspections. Knapp, S. Velden, M. van de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31147/ 2011-12-01T00:00:00Z We study the impacts of country-level information asymmetry, investors' home-country bias, effectiveness of contract enforcement mechanisms, and accessibility of legal recourse on IPO underpricing in 36 countries around the globe. We find evidence consistent with all four of our hypotheses. First, we find a positive and significant effect of country-level information asymmetry on IPO underpricing. Second, our empirical evidence is consistent with the agency-cost-based explanation of IPO underpricing. We find that lower cost to entice the block holders, measured by domestic investors' home-country bias, reduces IPO underpricing. Third, we find that effective contract enforcement mechanisms help to reduce IPO underpricing. Finally, we find a positive relation between the accessibility of legal recourse and IPO underpricing. Banerjee, S. Dai, L. Shrestha, K. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31809/ 2011-12-01T00:00:00Z In IAS 1 ‘Presentatie van de jaarrekening’ wordt ingegaan op de zogenoemde primaire overzichten van de jaarrekening: de balans, de winst-en-verliesrekening (met al dan niet de overige resultaten als een afzonderlijk primair overzicht), het kasstroomoverzicht en het overzicht van de mutaties in het eigen vermogen. De standaard stelt een aantal eisen maar biedt anderzijds ook vrijheid van handelen door ondernemingen. Wij onderzoeken de jaarverslagen van 97 ondernemingen die genoteerd staan in de FTSE 100, en de keuzes die door deze ondernemingen zijn gemaakt. Wij analyseren op een aantal punten de invloed van het land van herkomst van de onderneming en de bedrijfstak waarin de onderneming werkzaam is. Ten aanzien van non-GAAP financial measures wordt geconcludeerd dat sprake is van een grote mate van diversiteit. Backhuijs, J. Knoops, C.D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26877/ 2011-11-17T00:00:00Z Due to several reasons, currently the global supply chains are getting stretched further away into the hinterlands from the gateway seaports. This single fact enhances the importance of dry ports. It would not be against logic, to state that in coming times, as a result of ever-growing quest for satisfying the customers, improving quality, cutting transaction costs the dry ports will assume greater importance than sea ports, hence a study of this phenomenon assumes importance. Post financial crisis, India along with China and Brazil have acquired global attention due to consistent economic growth and most importantly its perceived ability to pull the world out of recession. There are quite a few similarities in all the three countries apart from demography produce and landmass. The chief amongst them is overwhelming quest for growth and suitable policies being adopted to satisfy the growth. It is but obvious that the dry ports will play a major role in the growth stories of all three countries. This thesis looks at the dry ports in India from different perspectives such as locational analysis, role of government in development of dry ports and need for Public Private Partnerships (PPP), regulating dry port competition and role of regulatory authorities, environmental externalities and dry port efficiency, factors affecting dry port performance and lastly container security at dry ports. The contention behind the compilation of overtly disparate dry port related topics is that every aspect has a clear but subtle bearing on other for e.g. competition policy has an impact on dry port performance. Similarly container security and environmental impact are related to the overall efficiency of the dry port. The importance of location of a dry port cannot be over emphasized and is directly related to the dry port performance. Chandrakant, G.G.