Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Author-Name-Last: Franses
Author-Name-First: Philip Hans
Author-Person: pfr226
Author-Name: Janssens, E.
Author-Name-Last: Janssens
Author-Name-First: Eva
Title: This time it is different! Or not?
Abstract: We employ a simple method based on logistic weighted least squares to diagnose which past
 data are less or more useful for predicting the future course of a variable. A simulation
 experiment shows its merits. An illustration for monthly industrial production series for 17
 countries suggests that earlier data are useful, for the prediction in a crisis period (2006-2011)
 and for the period after the crisis (2011-2016). Hence, this time, apparently it was not that
 different after all.
Length: 39
Creation-Date: 2017-09-01
File-URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/101764/EI2017-25.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Series: RePEc:ems:eureir
Number: EI2017-25
Keywords: Forecasting, Weighted Least Squares, Discounting, Logistic function, Industrial Production
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:101764