Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Author-Name-Last: Franses
Author-Name-First: Philip Hans
Author-Person: pfr226
Title: Experts adjusting model-based forecasts and the law of small numbers
Abstract: This paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts and their adjustments to forecasts of monthly sales of a variety of products. I find strong evidence in support of the LSN. Implications of this finding are discussed.
Creation-Date: 2007-10-02
File-URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/10563/ei2007-42.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Series: RePEc:ems:eureir
Number: EI 2007-42
Keywords: expert adjustment, law of small numbers, model-based forecast
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:10563