Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eisinga, R.
Author-Name-Last: Eisinga
Author-Name-First: Rob
Author-Name: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Author-Name-Last: Franses
Author-Name-First: Philip Hans
Author-Person: pfr226
Author-Name: Ooms, M.
Author-Name-Last: Ooms
Author-Name-First: Marius
Author-Person: poo1
Title: Convergence and Persistence of Left-Right Political Orientations in The Netherlands 1978-1995
Abstract: -Theory- Two theories about trends in left-right political orientations are juxtaposed: the persistence theory claiming that left-right orientations are highly resistant to change versus the irrelevance theory anticipating a move of mass publics towards the center of the left-right continuum. -Hypotheses- The left-right ideological differences between the Dutch political parties have declined since the early 1980s. We therefore assume that the left-right political self-placements of the Dutch electorate have converged to the center position over time.  -Methods- Descriptive statistics and fractionally integrated time series (ARFIMA) models were used to analyze data from 921 independent national Dutch surveys conducted between 1978 and 1995. -Results- The overtime distributions of left-right self-placement exhibit a depopulation of the left and right poles as people slowly gravitate to the center position. The aggregate orientations of religious and party affiliates also reveal a move to the common mid-point. Fractionally integrated time series models support the convergence thesis with right-most and left-most party affiliates converging most rapidly. However, the convergence we find may be part of a nonperiodic wave-like pattern were periods of convergence are alternated by periods of divergence. Future political conflicts may therefore again result in left-right political divergence.
Creation-Date: 1997-01-01
Series: RePEc:ems:eureir
Number: EI 9709-/A
Keywords: convergence, fractional integration, left-right orientation, long memory, persistence
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1417