Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Legerstee, R.
Author-Name-Last: Legerstee
Author-Name-First: Rianne
Author-Name: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Author-Name-Last: Franses
Author-Name-First: Philip Hans
Author-Person: pfr226
Title: Do experts' SKU forecasts improve after feedback?
Abstract: We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly
 SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment
 that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We
 have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevel
 forecasts for a variety of pharmaceutical products for October 2006
 to September 2007. We study the behavior of the experts by comparing
 their forecasts with those from an automated statistical program, and we
 report the forecast accuracy over these 12 months. In September 2007
 these experts were given feedback on their behavior and they received a
 training at the headquarters' office, where specific attention was given to
 the ins and outs of the statistical program. Next, we study the behavior
 of the experts for the 3 months after the training session, that is, October
 2007 to December 2007. Our main conclusion is that in the second period
 the experts' forecasts deviated less from the statistical forecasts and that
 their accuracy improved substantially.
Creation-Date: 2011-09-22
File-URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/26656/EI2011-31.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Series: RePEc:ems:eureir
Number: EI2011-31
Keywords: cognitive process feedback, expert forecasts, judgmental adjustment, model forecasts, outcome feedback, performance feedback, task properties feedback
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:26656