Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Chu, L-F.
Author-Name-Last: Chu
Author-Name-First: Lan-Fen
Author-Name: McAleer, M.J.
Author-Name-Last: McAleer
Author-Name-First: Michael
Author-Person: pmc90
Author-Name: Wang, S-H.
Author-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name-First: Szu-Hua
Title: Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
Abstract: This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute the future behavior of stationary models for the return levels of 10, 20, 50 and 100-years based on the period 1960-2010. In addition, the 95% confidence intervals of the return levels are provided. This is the first investigation to use generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme rainfall in Taiwan.
Creation-Date: 2012-12-01
File-URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/38692/EI2012-36.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Series: RePEc:ems:eureir
Number: EI 2012-36
Keywords: Q51, Q54, Q57, extreme rainfall, generalized extreme value, return level, statistical modelling
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:38692