Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Boulaksil, Y.
Author-Name-Last: Boulaksil
Author-Name-First: Youssef
Author-Name: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Author-Name-Last: Franses
Author-Name-First: Philip Hans
Author-Person: pfr226
Title: Experts' Stated Behavior
Abstract: We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.
Creation-Date: 2008-01-09
File-URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/10900/ERS-2008-001-MKT.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Series: RePEc:ems:eureri
Number: ERS-2008-001-MKT
Classification-JEL: C44, C53, M, M31, M39
Keywords: decision making, expert forecasts, model forecasts, stated behavior
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10900