Elsevier

Futures

Volume 41, Issue 9, November 2009, Pages 593-606
Futures

Transitions: Two steps from theory to policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.04.009Get rights and content

Abstract

This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks.

Introduction

Transitions pose an interesting challenge for policy makers since they involve long-term fundamental forms of change that incorporate large uncertainties. A more thorough understanding of what the forces that drive these societal transitions is essential in policy making. Since the research on societal transitions is fairly new, the field is still in constant motion and theories on the dynamics and management of these complex societal processes are emerging while this article is being written. This article tries to provide a bridge between the abstract concepts in these emerging transition theories [1], [2], [3], [4], [5] and the reality of the policy maker. In other words the article aims to take you in two steps from theory to policy.

Transition theories are beginning to grasp what the forces are that drive transitions. In rather abstract terminology these theories provide ways to describe societal systems and ways to identify potential for change from these descriptions. The first of the two steps referred to is the one that translates this terminology to concepts close to the policy maker. The second step allows the policy maker to actually identify the potential for transitional change in the societal system of relevance. Furthermore, since transitions typically unfold in several phases that invite different policy strategies, the article identifies milestone events that demarcate these phases.

The contribution this article attempts to make to the current policy assessment schemes is that of the integral perspective. Amongst the roots of transition theories are the fields of integrated assessment [e.g. 6] and complexity theories. The complexity concepts such as emergence, self-organization and complexity are drawn from various authors and works like Holland [7] and Kaufmann [8] and reinterpreted in a societal context as for instance done in [9]. Integrated assessment and complexity have in common that they use a systems perspective and therefore take into account those aspects typical of the problem at hand, but also the interaction with its environment.

The value for policy making in this approach is the systems perspective of its assessments, looking at the societal system as a whole, while acknowledging the possibilities of structural change arising in niches. Simultaneously a transition assessment includes the developments of the landscape, of influence on but hardly influenced by the system, with which it is in co-evolution. In this way the approach described in this paper can add to the present body of literature on policy analysis and transition management as well, by adding a broader perspective and help policy making facing societal transitions.

What is new in the societal transitions theory in comparison with existing frameworks in policy analysis literature is the view of what poses change in the system. Policy analysts use to draw scenarios to deal with uncertainty after defining those forces external to the system that are highly unpredictable and highly uncertain. Those external to the system forces pose change to the system's subsystems but the assessment of these influences incorporates a level of uncertainty hence only descriptive and plausible scenarios can be drawn [10]. What differs in the transitions theory perspective is that change of the system does not only come from outside but also from within. The forces driving transitional change are those who have the potential to transform the societal system and are located within and outside the system.

This article is divided into four parts. It starts by acquainting the reader with the concepts and nomenclature of transition theory in the ‘Preliminaries’. Rather than choosing for a full review of the literature on transitions this article draws from the recent pillar theory for societal transitions [1] that both incorporates the existing concepts and investigates thoroughly what the conditions-for-change are. The first step then is taken by linking these conditions-for-change to actual forces that influence transitional change, arranged in several qualitative, recognisable categories. The second step is taken by presenting a conceptual tool – the clover model – that helps to analyse societal systems and allows a systematic inquiry to the forces that influence transitional change. An operational example of such an inquiry is given in Appendix A, listing the forces for a specific societal system. After these steps the reader is presented with the milestone events that can be used to demarcate the typical phases of transitions. How the societal system may respond to present conditions for change is investigated by drawing patterns of change and patterns of resistance using the forces driving transitional change.

Section snippets

Preliminaries

Societal transitions take place in societal systems. A societal system is defined as a part of society to which a function can be attributed. Functioning is the way the societal system meets the societal needs. In this way one can speak of sectors like healthcare, agriculture, energy production as societal systems. A transition is understood as having occurred when the societal system functions in a different way for which the composition of the societal system had to change fundamentally. In

Step one: identify the forces

Conditions for change are the necessary but not necessarily sufficient conditions that drive societal system to change. One needs to identify the forces that set the stage for these conditions to gain insight in the transition dynamics. With a force here is meant a descriptive variable of the system state during a transition. Forces can be stimulating or inhibiting like in the mechanical equivalents of driving and damping forces. Also like in the mechanical analogue forces can be thought of as

Step two: finding the forces

Finding these forces driving transitional change is identifying their origins. In this manner the policy maker is provided with insights on different ways to coordinate and utilize these forces. The forces of change can be investigated in three conceptual blocks that corresponding to the components of a societal system.

The first conceptual block consists of the environment and the science and technology. The environment as the source of natural resources and space is an important element of the

Intermediate changes throughout transition phases

Apart from the present forces that drive transitional change, the societal system also experiences purposeful or emergent intermediate changes that signal the pass from one phase to another phase of the transitional development. Transitional change is conceptualised as a build-up of intermediate changes. The clover model can also be used as a tool in combination with the multi-phase picture introduced earlier to track the course of a transition.

A societal transition is seen as a build-up

Responses to conditions for change

When the societal system and its constellations (niches, regimes, and niche-regimes) experience the conditions of change, it may either accommodate or resist change. Patterns of change capture the processes and the situation of the societal system when change takes place. Patterns of resistance capture the processes and the situation of the societal system as a reactive response to change.

These patterns provide the policy maker with insights in how a societal system might respond to the

An illustration: taking two steps in mobility

In a mobility system such as the Netherlands has at the moment, one can easily identify the regime as being centred around fossil fueled, car based personal mobility. Public transportation, being a competitive alternative for the regime can be called a niche-regime. Such a system, for example, experiences tensions arising from the immanent depletion of its energy sources. Stress reveals itself in persistent problems like congestion, where there is an apparent mismatch in the demand for

Acknowledgements

This research has been conducted with the support of the KSI II.2 Research Subprogram “The dynamics of transitions”. The authors would like to thank Dr. van Daalen, Dr. Whitmarsh, Ir. van Raak, for their valuable and critical comments during the coming into being of this article and Prof. Rotmans for inspiration and guidance.

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