The Influence of Temperature on Spike Probability in Day-Ahead Power Prices
It is well known that day-ahead prices in power markets exhibit spikes. These spikes are sudden increases in the day-ahead price that occur because power production is not flexible enough to respond to demand and/or supply shocks in the short term. This paper focuses on how temperature influences the probability on a spike. The paper shows that the difference between the actual and expected temperature significantly influences the probability on a spike and that the impact of temperature on spike probability depends on the season.
|Keywords||Day-ahead power price, Power production, Spike probability, Temperature|
|JEL||G3, Corporate Finance and Governance (jel), M, Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel), N7, Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services (jel)|
|Publisher||Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)|