Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models
In this paper I examine various extensions of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with the purpose of fitting and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in-sample fit of the term structure. However, I show that the out-of-sample predictability improves as well. The four-factor model, which adds a second slope factor to the three-factor Nelson-Siegel model, forecasts particularly well. Especially with a one-step state-space estimation approach the four-factor model produces accurate forecasts and outperforms competitor models across maturities and forecast horizons. Subsample analysis shows that this outperformance is also consistent over time.
|Keywords||Nelson-Siegel, Svensson, forecasting, state-space model, term structure of interest rates|
|JEL||Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C32), Econometric Modeling (jel C5), Money and Interest Rates (jel E4)|
de Pooter, M.D. (2007). Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models. Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/10219