Quadratic optimization for asset portfolios often leads to error maximization, with optimizers zooming in on large errors in the predicted inputs, that is, expected returns and risks. The consequence in most cases is a poor real-time performance. In this paper we show how to improve real-time performance of the popular equity momentum strategy with robust optimization in an empirical application involving 1500-2500 US stocks over the period 1963-2006. We also show that popular procedures like Bayes-Stein estimated expected returns, shrinking the covariance matrix and adding weight constraints fail in such a practical case

Additional Metadata
Keywords momentum strategy, quadratic optimization, robust optimzation
Publisher Tinbergen Institute
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/14943
Citation
van Oord, A, Martens, M.P.E, & van Dijk, H.K. (2009). Robust Optimization of the Equity Momentum Strategy (No. TI 09-011/4). Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute. Tinbergen Institute. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/14943