Exhaustion and Technological Development: a macro-dynamic policy model

The main components of the problem complex posed by the Club of Rome are what the joint effect will be, and how it can be influenced, of (i) population growth, (ii) increase of pollution, (iii) the exhaustion of material resources and (iv) technological development. From the discussions of the last few years my main impressions are that policies to curb population growth and pollution are within reach, even though formidable obstacles will have to be faced. Put in oversimplified terms, the population explosion begins to be seen by a rapidly increasing number of people as a danger; various means to put a break on it have been developed and there is a group of countries where the effect of their use begins to be visible. Also a number of expert calculations on the means needed to keep pollution under control suggest that these are of the order of 4 per cent of national income for some developed countries; a figure not too deconcerting. The author is indebted to Professors O. Rademaker and H. Linnemann for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. Of course the responsibility for the present text is mine.

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