Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction
Objectives: This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged ≥75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Methods: Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. Results: After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). Conclusions: Short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.
|Keywords||Mortality prediction, Myocardial infarction, ST segment elevation, acute heart infarction, age, aged, article, controlled study, female, heart rate, hemodynamics, hospital admission, human, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglycemia, major clinical study, male, mortality, prediction, priority journal, prognosis, risk assessment, scoring system, st segment elevation myocardial infarction, survival time, validity|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1159/000243770, hdl.handle.net/1765/17900|
Lenderink, T, Hernández, A.V, Boersma, H, Martínez-Sellés, M, Juárez, M, Sanchez, P, … Bueno, H. (2009). Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction. Cardiology: international journal of cardiovascular medicine, surgery and pathology, 115(1), 1–9. doi:10.1159/000243770