Are the DAC Targets Achievable? Poverty and Human Development in the Year 2015

The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD has set target rates of poverty incidence and levels of a number of human development indicators as goals to be met with the aid of development assistance by the years 2005 and 2015. In this paper we assess the likelihood that these goals will be met. We estimate future levels of poverty and human development indicators, using econometric models that capture the past relationship between per capita economic growth and both poverty and human development indicators. Our models use existing projections of future economic growth for the world's major developing regions. We find that for some developing regions achievement of the DAC poverty targets depends critically on the pattern as well as the rate of growth, as targets are only met when high or medium levels of income equality accompany growth. The prospects for achieving the human development targets, particularly gender equity ones, are good for most regions.