Background: Screening for prostate cancer (PC) is controversial due to uncertainties about its efficiency. Objective: We aimed to develop strategies to reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies while still detecting most clinically important PC cases. Design, setting, and participants: In 1850 men initially screened and biopsied (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] value ≥3.0 ng/ml) in the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, we calculated both the probability of having a positive lateralized sextant biopsy [P(biop+)] and the probability of having an indolent cancer [P(ind)] if PC was detected at biopsy (n = 541). Analyses of repeat screening included 225 cancers in 1201 men. Interventions: The P(biop+) was based on applying a logistic regression model that included ultrasound volume, digital rectal exam, and transrectal ultrasound in addition to the PSA value. The P(ind) was based on a recently validated nomogram. Measurements and limitations: At initial screening the fraction of positive biopsies was 29% (541 of 1850). Applying an additional P(biop+) cut-off of 12.5% implied that 613 of the 1850 men (33%) would not have been biopsied. This would result in an increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) to 38% (468 of 1237). At repeat screening a similar P(biop+) cut-off would result in an increase in the PPV from 19% (225 of 1201) to 25% (188 of 760). Thirteen percent of PC cases would not have been diagnosed, of which 70% (initial screening) and 81% (repeat screening) could be considered as potentially indolent. None of the deadly PC cases would have been missed. A PSA cut-off of ≥4.0 ng/ml resulted in similar numbers of biopsied cases saved but considerably higher numbers of missed diagnoses. Conclusions: An individualized screening algorithm using other available prebiopsy information in addition to PSA level can result in a considerable reduction of unnecessary biopsies. Very few important PC cases, for which diagnosis at a subsequent screening visit might be too late for treatment with curative intent, would be missed.

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Keywords Biopsy, DRE, Indolent prostate cancer, Multivariate analysis, Nomogram, PSA, Prostate cancer, Risk stratification, Screening
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eururo.2009.08.025, hdl.handle.net/1765/27963
Citation
Roobol-Bouts, M.J., Steyerberg, E.W., Kranse, R., Wolters, T., van den Bergh, R.C.N., Bangma, C.H., & Schröder, F.H.. (2010). A Risk-Based Strategy Improves Prostate-Specific Antigen-Driven Detection of Prostate Cancer. European Urology, 57(1), 79–85. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2009.08.025