This paper presents an essentially affine model of the term structure of interest rates making use of macroeconomic factors and their long-run expectations. The model extends the approach pioneered by Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) by modeling consistently long-run inflation expectations simultaneously with the term structure. This model thus avoids the standard pre-filtering of long-run expectations, as proposed by Kozicki and Tinsley (2001). Application to the U.S. economy shows the importance of long-run inflation expectations in the modelling of long-term bonds. The paper also provides a macroeconomic interpretation for the factors found in a latent factor model of the term structure. More specifically, we find that the standard "level" factor is highly correlated to long-run inflation expectations, the "slope" factor captures temporary business cycle conditions, while the "curvature" factor represents a clear independent monetary policy factor.

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Keywords Essentially affine term structure model, long-run market expectations, macroeconomic factors, monetary policy rule
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/324
Citation
Dewachter, H.D.R., & Lyrio, M.. (2003). Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates (No. ERS-2003-037-F&A). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/324