Validation of a model predicting spontaneous pregnancy among subfertile untreated couples

Objective: To provide external validation of the Eimers model, which predicts spontaneous pregnancy among subfertile couples within the first year after the definitive establishment of the diagnostic category. Design: Live birth rates predicted by an adapted version of the Eimers model were tested against observed live birth rates in a Canadian cohort study.Setting: Fertility clinics in university medical centers. Patient(s): One thousand sixty-one couples consulting for subfertility due to cervical hostility, male subfertility, or unexplained subfertility.Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): We measured the discriminative ability and reliability of the predictions from the model.Result(s): The live birth rate was lower in the Canadian population than in the Eimers population. Overall, the prognostic effect of the predictors did not differ significantly in both populations. The model showed moderate predictive power in the Canadian population. With adjustment of the average live birth rate, the reliability of the model was satisfactory. Conclusion(s): The Eimers model gave reliable spontaneous pregnancy predictions in the Canadian validation population after adjustment of the average live birth rate. Copyright

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