The Notions of Horizon and Expectancy in Dynamic Economics
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Also published in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 322-339
In a theory of economic dynamics, the ophelimity function of individuals must be supposed to depend on the quantities of goods consumed and the sacrifices brought, not only at the moment considered, but also at later moments. Their offer and demand schemes for each moment then depend not only on the prices governing at that moment, but also on the price expectances the individuals have for the future. Among those expectances, those relating to the near future will be of more importance than those relating to a further period. As a first approximation it might be supposed that only the expectances relating to a certain time period (the "horizon") are of importance, and all of the same importance. That means that the subject is at every moment t making a definite plan for the period from t to t + ~ ,an d then realizes certain parts of that plan. Before other parts could be realized, the subject makes a "revision" at the moment t+l, say, for the period from t+l to t+r+l, etc. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss, with the help of these notions, some results of statistical analysis, which cannot be explained by static theory, and which seem to teach something about horizon or expectances.
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