Unit roots in periodic autoregressions


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pp 221-245.
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Abstract. This paper analyzes the presence and consequences of a unit root in periodic autoregressive models for univariate quarterly time series. First, we consider various representations of such models, including a new parametrization which facilitates imposing a unit root restriction. Next, we propose a class of likelihood ratio tests for a unit root, and we derive their asymptotic null distributions. Likelihood ratio tests for periodic parameter variation are also proposed. Finally, we analyze the impact on unit root inference of misspecifying a periodic process by a constant-parameter model.



Keywords


Automatically Extracted Terms
  • model
  • unit roots
  • process
  • unit root
  • statistic
  • parameter
  • series
  • autoregression
  • vector
  • trend
  • distribution
  • time series
  • representation
  • lr statistic
  • hypothesis
  • restriction
  • franse
  • matrix
  • motion
  • brownian