How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method
January 2001
Research Paper
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This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, and its associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision on potential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of either difference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robust bootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicates the practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war US industrial production.
Keywords
Classifications using
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification System
- C15 : Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; Bootstrap Methods
- C22 : Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
- C13 : Estimation
Automatically Extracted Terms
- interval
- confidence
- model
- confidence intervals
- procedure
- distribution
- t-statistic
- subsampling procedure
- subsampling
- unit root
- theorem
- growth rate
- growth
- confidence interval
- error
- section
- ds model
- result
- method
- estimate
