Essays On Economic Cycles

Bert de Groot is Rector Magnificus and Dean of Nyenrode Business Universiteit. He is a former member of the Randstad Holding N.V Board of Directors. De Groot has held numerous leading positions on a national and international level in sectors ranging from telecommunications to the pharmaceutical industry and from life sciences to the computer sector. In addition to his position at Randstad (staffing services) he was associated with the Royal Dutch Navy, biotech and pharmaceutical company Gist Brocades N.V, Unisys Inc. (information management and computer industry), telecom multinational KPN, Boer & Croon (executive management), Pharming N.V. (life sciences), AM NV (project development), the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam and the Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam Holding B.V. (commercial research). De Groot gained extensive experience in corporate recovery (at Pharming and others) and corporate delisting (at AM). He holds various supervisory board memberships. Bert de Groot studied econometrics at the Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam (EUR) and has followed management programs at IMD (previously IMI), Nyenrode, Wharton and INSEAD. De Groot was awarded his PhD by the EUR for his thesis ‘Essays on Economic Cycles’ and is member of the Econometric Institute of the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the EUR. He has a number of publications on economic cycles to his name and makes short- and long-term predictions for Randstad and the Dutch economy in general. At Nyenrode, Bert de Groot holds the chair in ‘Business and Economic Cycles’. The Research focuses on the development of the international economy and individual companies and the cyclical development that can be observed. This is done from an economic and business perspective and from a technological, institutional, social-societal and ecological perspective. Key research issues include how cyclical developments are influenced by innovation, and the decisions and actions of business leaders, entrepreneurs, managers, governments and non-governmental organizations. Insights in future developments are used to enhance scenario analysis. Bert de Groot is a member of the Nyenrode Research Group and a member of the Econometric Institute at the EUR.

Schumpeter’s line of thought of multiple economic cycles is further investigated. The existence of multiple cycles in economic variables is demonstrated. In basic innovations five different cycles are found. Multiple cycle structures are shown in various macro-economic variables from the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Netherlands. It is remarkable that the lengths in years of the individual cycles are similar to the Fibonnaci sequence. This relationship has never been found before in the economy. This sequence is well known in the scientific fields of biology, physics and astronomy. It can also be observed in art, music and architecture. The existence of this relationship gives a new perspective on macro- economic relationships and economic growth. The multiple cycle approach is also applied to the Dutch economy. On the basis of a 5 and 11 year cycle present in the Dutch Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a long term forecast model is developed. At the same time a new real time indicator, also known as “nowcast indicator”, of Dutch GDP is developed. This indicator serves as a thermometer of the Dutch economy and is called the “Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy” (EICIE). In contract to most other forecast models, which are much larger, this forecast model is based upon a single equation. The model is based on a single explanatory real variable, namely staffing data from Randstad Staffing Services.

Schumpeters gedachte over meervoudige economische golfbewegingen is verder onderzocht. Het bestaan van meervoudige cycli in economische variabelen is aangetoond. In kerninnovaties zijn vijf verschillende cycli aangetroffen. Verder zijn meervoudige cycli structuren gevonden in diverse macro-economische variabelen voor Groot-Brittanië, de Verenigde Staten en Nederland. Opmerkelijk is dat de lengten in jaren van de individuele cycli de Fibonacci reeks benaderen. Deze relatie is niet eerder aangetoond in de economie. De reeks keert regelmatig terug op tal van wetenschapsterreinen zoals de biologie, natuurkunde en astronomie. Deze is eveneens waar te nemen in de kunst, muziek en architectuur. Het bestaan van dit verband geeft een andere kijk op macro-economische relaties en op economische groei. De meervoudige cyclus benadering is eveneens toegepast op de Nederlandse economie. Op basis van een 5 en 11 jarige cyclus in het Nederlandse Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP) is een lange termijn voorspel model ontwikkeld. Tegelijk is een nieuwe real time indicator, ook wel” nowcast indicator”geheten, van het Nederlandse BBP ontwikkeld. Deze thermometer voor de Nederlandse economie wordt de “Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy” (EICIE) genoemd. In tegenstelling tot de meeste andere voorspelmodellen, die veel groter zijn, gaat het hier om een éénregelig voorspelmodel. Het model is gebaseerd op één verklarende reële variabele, namelijk uitzenddata van uitzendconcern Randstad.