Striking Oil: Another Puzzle
We find that changes in oil prices strongly predict future stock market returns in many countries in the world. In our thirty year sample of monthly data for developed stock markets, we find statistically significant predictability in 12 out of the 18 countries and in a world market index. For our shorter time series of emerging markets we obtain similar results. We show that these results are economically significant and robust with respect to the sample period, different kind of oil prices we consider and well known effects like the January effect and the Halloween effect.
|besliskunde, international stock markets, market efficiency, oil prices, return predictability, stock returns|
|General Financial Markets (jel G1), Corporate Finance and Governance (jel G3), Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel M)|
|ERIM Report Series Research in Management|
|Organisation||Erasmus Research Institute of Management|
Driesprong, G, Jacobsen, B, & Maat, B. (2003). Striking Oil: Another Puzzle (No. ERS-2003-082-F&A). ERIM Report Series Research in Management. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1017