On the brink of deglobalisation...again
This article provides an empirical analysis of the disruption of (neo)classical/liberal globalisation during the Great Depression and the Great Recession, identifying challenges to existing knowledges and approaches, in particular the mainstream analysis that studied the Great Recession in isolation, treating it as a special case and ignoring political covariates of deglobalisation processes. The econometric analysis (an unbalanced panel of 31 countries in the 1928-1932 and 128 countries in 2008-2012) does not find an impact from the level of development on deglobalisation. The manufacturing import share is significantly associated with stronger deglobalisation (this effect is stronger in the 1930s than in the 2000s). The political system is highly significant in both 1930s and 2000s, but the sign of its impact is opposite. In the 1930s, autocratic rule and dictatorship are associated with stronger deglobalisation; in the 2000s, democracy is associated with stronger deglobalisation.
|Keywords||deglobalisation, Great Depression, Great Recession, politics and trade, world trade collapse, world trade slowdown|
|JEL||Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: General, International, or Comparative (jel N70), Economic Impacts of Globalization, General (jel F60)|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsx023, hdl.handle.net/1765/105263|
|Journal||Cambridge journal of regions, economy and society|
van Bergeijk, P.A.G. (2018). On the brink of deglobalisation..again. Cambridge journal of regions, economy and society, 11(1), 59–72. doi:10.1093/cjres/rsx023