China’s economic hegemony (1-2050 AD)

Strong economic growth in China and the concomitant increase in its share in global production constitute the most important geo-economic shift of the post war period. With the re-emergence of China as a truly global player discussions on Chinese world leadership have re-emerged. This paper takes a long-run economic-historic perspective and investigates global macroeconomic conditions indicated by theories of collective action and hegemonism (in particular [lack of] dominance in production and fragmentation of global production) in order to assess the future outlook for the production of global public goods. The importance of these measures follows from the fact that in a fully fragmented world economy public goods cannot be arranged. If the share of the hegemon or the leading group in the benefits provided by the global public good is low, then the public good is less likely to be produced. What will be the consequences of China’s emergence for global governance, its efficacy and its sustainability?