Validation of the Mayo Clinic Staging System in Determining Prognoses of Patients With Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Background & Aims Most systems for staging perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) have been developed for the minority of patients with resectable disease. The recently developed Mayo Clinic system for staging PHC requires only clinical and radiologic variables, but has not yet been validated. We performed a retrospective study to validate the Mayo Clinic staging system. Methods We identified consecutive patients with suspected PHC who were evaluated and treated at 2 tertiary centers in The Netherlands, from January 2002 through December 2014. Baseline characteristics (performance status, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level) used in the staging system were collected from medical records and imaging parameters (tumor size, suspected vascular involvement, and metastatic disease) were reassessed by 2 experienced abdominal radiologists. Overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and comparison of staging groups was performed using the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Discriminative performance was quantified by the concordance index and compared with the radiologic TNM staging of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (7th ed). Results PHCs from 600 patients were staged according to the Mayo Clinic model (23 stage I, 80 stage II, 357 stage III, and 140 stage IV). The median overall survival time was 11.6 months. The median overall survival times for patients with stages I, II, III, and IV were 33.2 months, 19.7 months, 12.1 months, and 6.0 months, respectively; with hazard ratios of 1.0 (reference), 2.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14–3.58), 2.71 (95% CI, 1.59–4.64), and 4.00 (95% CI, 2.30–6.95), respectively (P <.001). The concordance index score was 0.59 for the entire cohort (95% CI, 0.56–0.61). The Mayo Clinic model performed slightly better than the radiologic American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM system. Conclusions In a retrospective study of 600 patients with PHC, we validated the Mayo Clinic system for staging PHC. This 4-tier staging system may aid clinicians in making treatment decisions, such as referral for surgery, and predicting survival times.

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