We measure the economic value of information derived from macroeconomic variables and from technical trading rules for emerging markets currency investments. Our analysis is based on a sample of 21 emerging markets with a floating exchange rate regime over the period 1997-2007 and explicitly accounts for trading restrictions on foreign capital movements by using non-deliverable forward data. We document that both types of information can be exploited to implement profitable trading strategies. In line with evidence from surveys of foreign exchange professionals concerning the use of fundamental and technical analysis, we find that combining the two types of information improves the risk-adjusted performance of the investment strategies.

emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, heterogeneous agents, structural exchange rate models, technical trading
Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates (jel E43), Corporate Finance and Governance (jel G3), Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel M)
Erasmus Research Institute of Management
hdl.handle.net/1765/10891
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management
Erasmus Research Institute of Management

de Zwart, G.J, Markwat, T.D, Swinkels, L.A.P, & van Dijk, D.J.C. (2007). The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets (No. ERS-2007-096-F&A). ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/10891