We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

Additional Metadata
Keywords decision making, expert forecasts, model forecasts, stated behavior
JEL Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research (jel C44), Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53), Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel M), Marketing (jel M31), Marketing and Advertising: Other (jel M39)
Publisher Erasmus Research Institute of Management
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/10900
Series ERIM Report Series Research in Management
Journal ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management
Citation
Boulaksil, Y, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2008). Experts' Stated Behavior (No. ERS-2008-001-MKT). ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/10900