Why did Warrant Markets Close in China but not Taiwan?
The paper bridges a gap in the literature by using moment analysis, CAPM statistics, stochastic dominance (SD) test, and volume analysis to examine investor preferences for warrants between China and Taiwan, and investigating why the market for warrants in China has to close while the market for Taiwan warrants is successful. Using moment analysis, it is shown that that buying China warrants has a higher likelihood of losses than its Taiwan counterpart. Using CAPM analysis, in general, both the Sharpe ratio and Jensen index for warrants from the Taiwan market are more reasonable, while that from the China market is too negative. On the other hand, the Treynor index for China warrants shows that China warrants are highly volatile. This could make investors avoid investing in China warrants which, in turn, could lead to its closure. Using SD analysis, though there is no arbitrage opportunity between the China and Taiwan warrant markets, it is shown that the markets for China and Taiwan warrants are not efficient, and second- and third-order risk averters prefer to invest in China warrants to warrants in Taiwan. This implies that the warrant issuers prefer to issue Taiwan warrants than China warrants. Using volume analysis, the China warrant market is much more active than the Taiwan warrant market. This could imply that there are more speculative activities in China than in Taiwan which, in turn, could lead to China’s decision to close its warrant market. The findings in the paper are useful for investors for investment decisions regarding Taiwan and China warrants, for academic analysis for modelling Taiwan and China warrants, and policy makers for policy making related to Taiwan and China warrants. In the future, China may rethink reopening warrant markets and learning from mature-covered warrant markets such as Taiwan how to inhibit excess speculation and educate warrant investors.
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|Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series|
|Organisation||Department of Econometrics|
Wong, W.-K, Lean, H.H, McAleer, M.J, & Tsai, F.-T. (2018). Why did Warrant Markets Close in China but not Taiwan? (No. TI 2018-051/III). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/112512