Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales–response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands’ market shares. In this note we propose as an alternative a simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of market shares. An application of this forecasting technique to a five brand tuna fish market illustrates its practical relevance.

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Keywords forecasting, market shares, sales models
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00075-3, hdl.handle.net/1765/11477
Journal International Journal of Forecasting
Fok, D, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2001). Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales. International Journal of Forecasting, 17(1), 121–128. doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00075-3