Estimates of quarterly GDP growth using MIDAS regressions
This paper provides new estimates of year-to-year quarterly real GDP growth in Suriname for 2013Q1 to 2018Q4. The methodology to arrive at these estimates consists of the following steps. Using the familiar Chow and Lin method, the available annual data are disaggregated into a first round of quarterly data. The quarterly data are then included in a MIDAS model, which links the quarterly observations with a new but well established monthly observed indicator of economic activity. The best-performing MIDAS model is then used to update the initial estimates of quarterly GDP growth to final estimates, which in turn can be used in macro-economic modelling and analysis.
|Keywords||Quarterly real GDP growth, Disaggregation, MIDAS Regression Models, Monthly indicator of economic activity|
|JEL||Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C32), Model Evaluation and Testing (jel C52), Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53)|
|Series||Econometric Institute Research Papers|
Bhaghoe, S, Ooft, G, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2019, August). Estimates of quarterly GDP growth using MIDAS regressions. Econometric Institute Research Papers. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/118667