Many forecasting studies compare the forecast accuracy of new methods or models against a benchmark model. Often, this benchmark is the random walk model. In this note I argue that for various reasons an IMA(1,1) model is a better benchmark in many cases.

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hdl.handle.net/1765/118712
Department of Econometrics

Franses, P. H. (2019). IMA(1,1) as a new benchmark for forecast evaluation. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/118712