Cost Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance After a Sustained Virologic Response to Therapy in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Advanced Fibrosis

Background & Aims Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis increases the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). After a sustained virologic response (SVR) to anti-HCV therapy, the risk of HCC is reduced but not eliminated. Recent developments in antiviral therapy have increased rates of SVR markedly. Guidelines recommend indefinite biannual ultrasound surveillance after SVR for patients with advanced fibrosis before treatment. Surveillance for HCC is cost effective before anti-HCV treatment; we investigated whether it remains so after SVR.

Methods We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost effectiveness of biannual or annual HCC ultrasound surveillance vs no surveillance in 50-year-old patients with advanced fibrosis after an SVR to anti-HCV therapy. Parameter values were obtained from publications and expert opinions. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results With a constant 0.5% annual incidence of HCC, biannual and annual surveillance resulted in ICERs of $106,792 and $72,105 per QALY, respectively, with high false-positive rates. When surveillance was limited to patients with cirrhosis, but not F3 fibrosis, biannual surveillance likely was cost effective, with ICERs of $48,729 and $43,229 per QALY after treatment with interferon and direct-acting antiviral agents, respectively. In patients with F3 fibrosis, the incidence of HCC was 0.3% to 0.4% per year, leading to an ICER of $188,157 per QALY for biannual surveillance. If HCC incidence increases with age, surveillance becomes more cost effective but remains below willingness-to-pay thresholds only for patients with cirrhosis or with pretreatment aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index greater than 2.0 or FIB-4 measurements greater than 3.25. Sensitivity analyses identified HCC incidence and transition rate to symptomatic disease without surveillance as factors that affect cost effectiveness.

Conclusions In a Markov model, we found HCC surveillance after an SVR to HCV treatment to be cost effective for patients with cirrhosis, but not for patients with F3 fibrosis.