For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and hence creating forecasts can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for the last one and a half decade. The model can be viewed as a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy concerning the high inflation period in 2016-2017.

Additional Metadata
Keywords Inflation, New Keynesian Phillips curve, Rational Expectations, MIDAS Regression, Forecasting
JEL Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (jel E12), Forecasting and Simulation (jel E17)
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/120337
Series Econometric Institute Research Papers
Citation
Ooft, G, Bhaghoe, S, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2019, September). Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname. Econometric Institute Research Papers. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/120337