Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname
For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and hence creating forecasts can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for the last one and a half decade. The model can be viewed as a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy concerning the high inflation period in 2016-2017.
|Keywords||Inflation, New Keynesian Phillips curve, Rational Expectations, MIDAS Regression, Forecasting|
|JEL||Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (jel E12), Forecasting and Simulation (jel E17)|
|Series||Econometric Institute Research Papers|
Ooft, G, Bhaghoe, S, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2019, September). Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname. Econometric Institute Research Papers. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/120337