For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and hence creating forecasts can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for the last one and a half decade. The model can be viewed as a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy concerning the high inflation period in 2016-2017.

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Econometric Institute Research Papers
Department of Econometrics

Ooft, G., Bhaghoe, S., & Franses, P. H. (2019, September). Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname. Econometric Institute Research Papers. Retrieved from