Clinical prediction models in neurosurgery are increasingly reported. These models aim to provide an evidence-based approach to the estimation of the probability of a neurosurgical outcome by combining 2 or more prognostic variables. Model development and model reporting are often suboptimal. A basic understanding of the methodology of clinical prediction modeling is needed when interpreting these models. We address basic statistical background, 7 modeling steps, and requirements of these models such that they may fulfill their potential for major impact for our daily clinical practice and for future scientific work.

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Keywords Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, Clinical prediction, Model development, Neurosurgery, Outcome, Risk assessment
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Journal Neurosurgery
Mijderwijk, H, Steyerberg, E.W, Steiger, H.J., Fischer, I., & Kamp, M.A. (2019). Fundamentals of Clinical Prediction Modeling for the Neurosurgeon. Neurosurgery, 85(3), 302–311. doi:10.1093/neuros/nyz282