Effect heterogeneity and variable selection for standardizing causal effects to a target population

The participants in randomized trials and other studies used for causal inference are often not representative of the populations seen by clinical decision-makers. To account for diferences between populations, researchers may consider standardizing results to a target population. We discuss several diferent types of homogeneity conditions that are relevant for standardization: Homogeneity of efect measures, homogeneity of counterfactual outcome state transition parameters, and homogeneity of counterfactual distributions. Each of these conditions can be used to show that a particular standardization procedure will result in an unbiased estimate of the efect in the target population, given assumptions about the relevant scientifc context. We compare and contrast the homogeneity conditions, in particular their implications for selection of covariates for standardization and their implications for how to compute the standardized causal efect in the target population. While some of the recently developed counterfactual approaches to generalizability rely upon homogeneity conditions that avoid many of the problems associated with traditional approaches, they often require adjustment for a large (and possibly unfeasible) set of covariates.

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