This paper presents a simple method to measure the beliefs of a decision maker with non-neutral ambiguity attitudes. Our method require three simple measurements, it is incentive-compatible, and it allows for risk aversion and deviations from expected utility, including ambiguity aversion. An experiment using two natural sources of uncertainty (temperature in Rotterdam and in New York City) showed that the estimated beliefs were well-calibrated, sensitive to the source of uncertainty, and similar to the beliefs that were estimated by more sophisticated but time consuming methods.

Additional Metadata
Keywords decision under uncertainty, belief measurement, ambiguity.
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/123420
Journal Operations Research
Citation
Abdellaoui, M, Bleichrodt, H, Kemel, E., & L'Haridon, O. (2020). Measuring Beliefs under Ambiguity. Operations Research, in press. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/123420