Measuring Beliefs under Ambiguity
This paper presents a simple method to measure the beliefs of a decision maker with non-neutral ambiguity attitudes. Our method require three simple measurements, it is incentive-compatible, and it allows for risk aversion and deviations from expected utility, including ambiguity aversion. An experiment using two natural sources of uncertainty (temperature in Rotterdam and in New York City) showed that the estimated beliefs were well-calibrated, sensitive to the source of uncertainty, and similar to the beliefs that were estimated by more sophisticated but time consuming methods.
|Keywords||decision under uncertainty, belief measurement, ambiguity.|
Abdellaoui, M, Bleichrodt, H, Kemel, E., & L'Haridon, O. (2020). Measuring Beliefs under Ambiguity. Operations Research, in press. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/123420