Professional forecasters can rely on an econometric model to create their forecasts. It is usually unknown to what extent they adjust an econometric model‐based forecast. In this paper we show, while making just two simple assumptions, that it is possible to estimate the persistence and variance of the deviation of their forecasts from forecasts from an econometric model. A key feature of the data that facilitates our estimates is that we have forecast updates for the same forecast target. An illustration to consensus forecasters who give forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and unemployment for a range of countries and years suggests that the more a forecaster deviates from a prediction from an econometric model, the less accurate are the forecasts.

Additional Metadata
Keywords professional forecasters, econometric model, expert adjustment, forecast accuracy
JEL Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53)
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030044, hdl.handle.net/1765/125158
Series Econometric Institute Research Papers
Journal The Journal of Risk Finance
Citation
Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & Welz, M. (2020). Does More Expert Adjustment Associate with Less Accurate Professional Forecasts?. The Journal of Risk Finance, 13(44), 1–7. doi:10.3390/jrfm13030044