Background: Prognostication tools for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) are currently lacking. The purpose of this study was to develop and externally validate a nomogram to predict overall survival in individual patients with peripheral early-stage disease. Methods: A total of 587 NSCLC patients treated with biologically effective dose > 100 Gy10 were eligible. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to build a nomogram to predict 6-month, 1-year, 3-year and 5-year overall survival. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap sampling. External validation was performed in a separate cohort of 124 NSCLC patients with central tumors treated with SBRT. Discriminatory ability was measured by the concordance index (C-index) while predictive accuracy was assessed with calibration slope and plots. Results: The resulting nomogram was based on six prognostic factors: age, sex, Karnofsky Performance Status, operability, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and tumor diameter. The slope of the calibration curve for nomogrampredicted versus Kaplan-Meier-estimated overall survival was 0.77. The C-index of the nomogram (corrected for optimism) was moderate at 0.64. In the external validation cohort, the model yielded a C-index of 0.62. Conclusions: We established and validated a nomogram which can provide individual survival predictions for patients with early stage lung cancer treated with SBRT. The nomogram may assist patients and clinicians with treatment decision-making.

Additional Metadata
Keywords Non-small cell, Lung neoplasm, Radiation, Individual survival prediction
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13014-020-01537-z, hdl.handle.net/1765/128417
Journal Radiation Oncology
Organisation Department of Radiation Oncology
Citation
Baker, S, Bakunina, K., Duijm, M, Hoogeman, M.S, Cornelissen, R, Antonisse, I., … Nuyttens, J.J.M.E. (2020). Development and external validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival following stereotactic body radiotherapy for early-stage lung cancer. Radiation Oncology, 15(1). doi:10.1186/s13014-020-01537-z