Background: Risk-prediction models have been proposed to select individuals for lung cancer screening. However, their longterm effects are uncertain. This study evaluates long-term benefits and harms of risk-based screening compared with current United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations. Methods: Four independent natural history models were used to perform a comparative modeling study evaluating longterm benefits and harms of selecting individuals for lung cancer screening through risk-prediction models. In total, 363 riskbased screening strategies varying by screening starting and stopping age, risk-prediction model used for eligibility (Bach, PLCOm2012, or Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]), and risk threshold were evaluated for a 1950 US birth cohort. Among the evaluated outcomes were percentage of individuals ever screened, screens required, lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, and overdiagnosis. Results: Risk-based screening strategies requiring similar screens among individuals ages 55–80 years as the USPSTF criteria (corresponding risk thresholds: Bach ¼ 2.8%; PLCOm2012 ¼ 1.7%; LCDRAT ¼ 1.7%) averted considerably more lung cancer deaths (Bach ¼ 693; PLCOm2012 ¼ 698; LCDRAT ¼ 696; USPSTF ¼ 613). However, life-years gained were only modestly higher (Bach ¼ 8660; PLCOm2012 ¼ 8862; LCDRAT ¼ 8631; USPSTF ¼ 8590), and risk-based strategies had more overdiagnosed cases (Bach ¼ 149; PLCOm2012 ¼ 147; LCDRAT ¼ 150; USPSTF ¼ 115). Sensitivity analyses suggest excluding individuals with limited life expectancies (<5 years) from screening retains the life-years gained by risk-based screening, while reducing overdiagnosis by more than 65.3%. Conclusions: Risk-based lung cancer screening strategies prevent considerably more lung cancer deaths than current recommendations do. However, they yield modest additional life-years and increased overdiagnosis because of predominantly selecting older individuals. Efficient implementation of risk-based lung cancer screening requires careful consideration of life expectancy for determining optimal individual stopping ages.,
National Cancer Institute. Journal (Print)
Department of Public Health

ten Haaf, K., Bastani, M., Cao, P.P., Jeon, J, Toumazis, I., Han, S.S, … de Koning, H.J. (2019). A Comparative Modeling Analysis of Risk-Based Lung Cancer Screening Strategies. National Cancer Institute. Journal (Print), 112(5), 466–479. doi:10.1093/jnci/djz164