Many forecasting studies compare the forecast accuracy of new methods or models against a benchmark model. Often, this benchmark is the random walk model. In this note, I argue that for various reasons an IMA(1,1) model is a better benchmark in many cases

One-step-ahead forecasts, benchmark model
Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53)
Applied Economics Letters
Department of Econometrics

Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2019). IMA (1,1) as a New Benchmark for forecast. Applied Economics Letters, 27(17), 1419–1423. Retrieved from