Many forecasting studies compare the forecast accuracy of new methods or models against a benchmark model. Often, this benchmark is the random walk model. In this note I argue that for various reasons an IMA(1,1) model is a better benchmark in many cases.

One-step-ahead forecasts, Benchmark model
Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53)
hdl.handle.net/1765/131235
Department of Econometrics

Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2020). IMA (1,1) as a New Benchmark for forecast.. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/131235