Stability through cycles
Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with periods ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle periods are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.
|Keywords||Fibonacci, K-waves, Kondratieff waves, business cycles, dynamic economic stability, long waves|
|JEL||Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development (jel O11)|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.004, hdl.handle.net/1765/13357|
|Series||ERIM Article Series (EAS) , Econometric Institute Reprint Series|
|Journal||Technological Forecasting and Social Change|
de Groot, E.A, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2008). Stability through cycles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(3), 301–311. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.004