Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with periods ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle periods are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.

Additional Metadata
Keywords Fibonacci, K-waves, Kondratieff waves, business cycles, dynamic economic stability, long waves
JEL Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development (jel O11)
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.004, hdl.handle.net/1765/13357
Series ERIM Article Series (EAS) , Econometric Institute Reprint Series
Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Citation
de Groot, E.A, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2008). Stability through cycles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(3), 301–311. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.004