Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with periods ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle periods are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.

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ERIM Article Series (EAS) , Econometric Institute Reprint Series
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Erasmus Research Institute of Management

de Groot, B., & Franses, P. H. (2008). Stability through cycles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(3), 301–311. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.004