This article is based on 183,819 port state control inspections from various port state control regimes and casualties from three different data sources for a time period of 6 years. It is the first time an analysis on a combined dataset of this magnitude has been performed. Binary logistic regression is used to measure the effect of inspections on the probability of casualty, which can be measured for very serious casualties but not for serious or less serious casualties. In addition, the magnitude of improvement areas for targeting substandard vessels is determined and the models further show how targeting of substandard ships on a combined dataset can be improved. In addition, the analysis also compares the fishing fleet with the commercial fleet.

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Keywords binary logistic regression, effectioveness of inspections, global view on port state control, port state control, post state control target factor, probability of casualty, ship risk profiles, vetting of inspections
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Series Econometric Institute Reprint Series
Journal Marine Policy
Knapp, S, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2007). Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty: Can targeting of substandard ships for inspections be improved?. Marine Policy, 31(4), 550–563. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2006.11.004