We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods for those two classes of models. A VAR model in first differences, with and without cointegration restrictions, and a VAR model in annual differences are also included in the analysis, where they serve as benchmark models. Our empirical results indicate that the VAR model in first differences without cointegration is best if one-step ahead forecasts are considered. For longer forecast horizons however, the VAR model in annual differences is better. When comparing periodic versus seasonal cointegration models, we find that the seasonal cointegration models tend to yield better forecasts. Finally, there is no clear indication that multiple equations methods improve on single equation methods.

forecasting, periodic cointegration, seasonal cointegration, time series
dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00085-1, hdl.handle.net/1765/13528
International Journal of Forecasting
Erasmus School of Economics

Löf, M, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2001). Multivariate Nonlinear Time-Series Model. International Journal of Forecasting, 17(4), 607–621. doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00085-1