In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country important policy implications can be derived, including admission procedures for different countries and/or migration motives.

migration dynamics, mover-stayer model, return migration
Duration Analysis (jel C41), International Migration (jel F22), Demographic Economics: General (jel J10)
Tinbergen Institute
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series
Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute
Tinbergen Institute

Bijwaard, G.E. (2008). Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants (No. TI 2008-070/4). Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute. Tinbergen Institute. Retrieved from