Experts' Stated Behavior
We asked experts who adjust model-based sales forecasts what they do to adjust these forecasts and why they feel it necessary to make adjustments. To accomplish this, we developed a questionnaire that included a range of questions. We sent it to 100 forecasting experts in the same company; of these, 42 respondents in 20 countries completed it. They indicated that they feel that model-based forecasts miss relevant events and are not approximately adequate. When previous sales figures fluctuate greatly, the experts feel that they need to make more adjustments. The forecasters also indicated that they would like to learn more about their company's forecasting model.
|Keywords||decision making, expert forecasts, model forecasts, stated behavior|
|JEL||Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research (jel C44), Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53), Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel M), Marketing (jel M31), Marketing and Advertising: Other (jel M39)|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0421, hdl.handle.net/1765/16373|
|Series||ERIM Top-Core Articles , Econometric Institute Reprint Series|
Boulaksil, Y, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2009). Experts' Stated Behavior. Interfaces (Hanover), 39(2), 168–171. doi:10.1287/inte.1080.0421