Diffusion of counterfeit medical products in a developing country: Empirical evidence for Suriname

Based on detailed shipping figures of Suriname’s main harbour in Paramaribo, we estimate the total shipments (in kilograms) of original and counterfeit medical products for 1996-2008 across five product categories. Using various time series techniques, we document that total cumulative shipments of counterfeit products eventually will make about 40% of total shipments. Correlation between the shipment series is on average 0.9, and there are no relevant leads or lags, implying that there are two distinct sets of consumers for original and for counterfeit products.